The Forecast Herald

Politics

Elections, policy and geopolitics, priced by prediction markets in real time.

8%– unchanged in 24 hours

Trump Presidency Odds Hold Steady on Polymarket

Traders assign an 8% chance to Donald Trump departing the presidency before 2027, reflecting a stable sentiment despite recent political developments.

  1. 2%– unchanged in 24 hoursNew People Party Faces Uphill Battle for Russian Parliament Majority
  2. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursMassa Júnior Third Place Odds Remain Flat Ahead of Brazil Election
  3. 12%– unchanged in 24 hoursMélenchon's 2027 Presidential Bid Remains Long Shot on Polymarket
  4. 20%– unchanged in 24 hoursHaley Stevens' 2026 Michigan Primary Chances Stagnant at 20%
  5. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursTalarico Democratic Nomination Odds Remain Stagnant
  6. 97%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
  7. 94%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?
  8. 94%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?
  9. 94%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill the Democratic Party win the WA-10 House seat?
  10. 97%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?
  11. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?
  12. EU Trade Deal Reaches 73% Probability
  13. UK Rejoins EU Single Market: 12% and Rising
  14. Climate Bill Passage Drops to 34%
  15. Trump Wins 2028 GOP Nomination: 71% Consensus