How It Works
Learn how we aggregate prediction markets, generate AI-powered news, and ensure accuracy through rigorous calibration and human oversight.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of future events. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective estimate of the probability that an event will occur.
For example, if a contract for “Candidate X wins the election” is trading at $0.65, the market is effectively saying there's a 65% chance that outcome will happen. Traders profit by identifying mispriced probabilities and correcting them through their trades.
Research has consistently shown that prediction markets outperform traditional polls and expert forecasts. Unlike polls, which capture a snapshot of opinions, markets continuously incorporate new information and provide incentives for accuracy. The financial stakes encourage participants to carefully weigh all available evidence rather than simply expressing preferences.
Crowd Wisdom
Prediction markets harness the collective intelligence of thousands of participants, aggregating diverse viewpoints into a single probability.
Real Money
When traders put money on the line, they have strong incentives to be accurate. This skin in the game filters out noise and rewards genuine insight.
Real-time Updates
Prices update continuously as new information emerges, providing a dynamic forecast that reflects the latest developments instantly.
How We Generate News
Our transparent 4-step process from data to publication
Data Collection
We continuously monitor prediction markets including Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and betting odds from The Odds API. Our system aggregates real-time probability data, price movements, and trading volume across all tracked events.
AI Analysis
Our AI models analyze probability shifts, identify significant market movements, and correlate changes with related news events. The system detects patterns that warrant coverage—sudden spikes, consensus shifts, or noteworthy divergences between prediction sources.
Human Review
Every AI-generated article passes through editorial review before publication. Our team verifies accuracy, checks source attribution, ensures balanced framing, and confirms that probability claims match the underlying market data.
Publishing
Approved articles are published with full transparency: clearly marked AI generation, linked source markets, timestamped probabilities, and calibration scores where available. Readers always know exactly where our forecasts come from.
Calibration & Accuracy
How accurate are prediction markets, really?
Calibration Plot
Points near the diagonal indicate well-calibrated predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Our Data Sources
Polymarket
The largest prediction market platform, specializing in political, economic, and cultural events with deep liquidity.
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated prediction market offering contracts on economic indicators, weather, and news events.
PredictIt
Academic-focused prediction market with strong coverage of US political races and policy outcomes.
The Odds API
Aggregates betting odds from major sportsbooks worldwide, covering sports and entertainment markets.
Alpha Vantage
Financial data provider offering real-time and historical stock, forex, and cryptocurrency data.
Open-Meteo
Open-source weather API providing forecasts, historical data, and climate information globally.
AI Disclosure
The Forecast Herald uses Claude AI by Anthropic to help generate content from prediction market data. Our AI assists with analyzing market movements and drafting articles, but all content goes through human review before publication. We believe in transparency about the role automation plays in our journalism.
What AI Does
- Summarize prediction market data and probability changes
- Generate probability-first headlines from market movements
- Analyze trends across multiple prediction platforms
- Identify significant shifts and breaking market updates
- Draft article content based on structured market data
What Humans Do
- Fact-check all AI-generated content before publishing
- Edit and refine headlines and article content
- Make final editorial decisions on what gets published
- Set content guidelines and quality standards
- Review and approve breaking news alerts