The Forecast Herald
Politics
100% — Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 43.3% or higher on January 7?
Polymarket traders price this at 100% (flat over 24h).
0% — Will Biden say "Balloon" during his SOTU?
Polymarket traders price this at 0% (flat over 24h).
50% — archWill Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket traders price this at 50% (flat over 24h).
100% — VA-4 Special Election: McClellan (D) vs. Benjamin (R)
Polymarket traders price this at 100% (flat over 24h).
Economics
Will U.S. inflation be greater than -0.1% from November to December 2022?
Tracked on Polymarket (flat over 24h).
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its February meeting?
Tracked on Polymarket (flat over 24h).
100% — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its February meeting?
Polymarket traders price this at 100% (flat over 24h).
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its February meeting?
Tracked on Polymarket (flat over 24h).
Sports
NBA: Spurs vs. Hawks (02/11/2023)
Tracked on Polymarket (flat over 24h).
0% — Will Morocco win the 2022 World Cup?
Polymarket traders price this at 0% (flat over 24h).
NFL Sunday: Cowboys vs. Commanders
Tracked on Polymarket (flat over 24h).
58% — NBA: Wizards vs. Pistons (02/01/2023)
Polymarket traders price this at 58% (flat over 24h).
Tech & AI
0% — Daytona 500: Will Denny Hamlin or Ryan Blaney claim the pole position?
Polymarket traders price this at 0% (flat over 24h).
0% — Super Bowl LVII Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?
Polymarket traders price this at 0% (flat over 24h).
0% — Did Changpeng Zhao (CZ) bail out SBF?
Polymarket traders price this at 0% (flat over 24h).
50% — Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?
Polymarket traders price this at 50% (flat over 24h).
Crypto
0% — Will the price of $ETH be above $1700 on February 17 (11:59 PM ET)?
Polymarket traders price this at 0% (flat over 24h).
Will $BTC reach $17000 by January 4?
Tracked on Polymarket (flat over 24h).
Ethereum Flips Bitcoin by 2027: 15% Odds
Long-term forecast sees slim but non-trivial chance of market cap overtake. Institutional adoption and staking yields factor into projections.
SEC Approves Spot Solana ETF: 34%
Following Bitcoin and Ethereum approvals, markets assess likelihood of expanded crypto ETF offerings in 2026.
Entertainment
GTA VI Ships by December 2026: 56% Probability
Rockstar's most anticipated game faces skepticism on delivery date. Production scale and past delays inform market expectations.
Squid Game Season 3 Breaks Netflix Records: 78%
Korean thriller positioned to shatter streaming benchmarks. Global marketing campaign and cultural momentum support bullish projections.
Taylor Swift Announces Retirement: 5% Odds
Markets see virtually no chance of pop megastar stepping back. Eras Tour success and album trajectory suggest continued activity.
MrBeast Hits 400M YouTube Subscribers: 67%
Content creator on track for historic milestone. Platform growth patterns and viral content cadence support market consensus.