Probability-First Journalism
The Forecast Herald
FC Porto vs. Manchester City FC: Neither team to score first?
50%—0%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-10 House election by 20%-25%?
50%—0%
Will AVAX reach $16 by December 31, 2026?
50%—0%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-09-08?
50%—0%
Will Tre Tucker have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
50%—0%
FC Porto vs. Manchester City FC: Neither team to score first?50%—0%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-10 House election by 20%-25%?50%—0%
Will AVAX reach $16 by December 31, 2026?50%—0%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-09-08?50%—0%
Will Tre Tucker have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?50%—0%
Seattle Seahawks to win vs New England Patriots64%—0%
Los Angeles Rams to win vs San Francisco 49ers65%—0%
Detroit Pistons to win vs Boston Celtics55%—0%
New York Knicks to win vs Philadelphia 76ers68%—0%
AAPL Stock Price319.97%▼8.24%
Tech
Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race Ahead of July 2026 Deadline
Traders are all but certain Anthropic will boast the top AI model by July 2026, with current odds reflecting near-universal confidence in its market leadership.
Crypto
Bitcoin Price Expected to Hold Above $58,000 Ahead of July 11 Close
Sports
Guardians World Series Hopes Remain Dim on Polymarket
Politics
Farage Clacton By-Election Win Appears All But Certain
Tech
OpenAI Valuation Outlook Holds Steady Below $750 Billion Mark
Crypto
Bitcoin $120,000 Target Remains Distant on Polymarket
Entertainment
World War Three Odds Hold Steady Against Grand Theft Auto VI Release
Tech & AI
34%– unchanged in 24 hours
OpenAI Valuation Outlook Holds Steady Below $750 Billion Mark
Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 34% probability to OpenAI reaching a $750 billion valuation by year-end, reflecting skepticism about a rapid surge in the AI firm's market capitalization.
- 11%– unchanged in 24 hoursUkraine Military Size Cut Before 2027 Seen Unlikely
- 89%– unchanged in 24 hoursSyrskyi's Tenure as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Seen Ending by 2027
- 2%– unchanged in 24 hoursFrance Warship Deployment in Hormuz Remains Highly Unlikely
- 99%– unchanged in 24 hoursAnthropic Dominates AI Model Race Ahead of July 2026 Deadline
- 9%– unchanged in 24 hoursOpenAI Valuation Outlook Remains Bearish on Polymarket
Crypto
1%– unchanged in 24 hours
Bitcoin All-Time High Doubts Persist on Polymarket
Traders assign a mere 1% chance to Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by September 2026, reflecting deep skepticism despite nearly $1 million in volume.
- 29%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin $62,500 Dip in July Remains Unlikely
- 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin Holds Firm Above $42,500 Threshold
- 53%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin $75,000 Target Remains a Coin Flip for 2026
- 6%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin $120,000 Target Remains Distant on Polymarket
- 100%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin Price Expected to Hold Above $58,000 Ahead of July 11 Close